Description: An exploration of the seasonality of mortality and how total population mortality is related to flu and pneumonia mortality.

Description: Using the Cox proportional Hazards Model to improve underwriting debits and credits.

Description: Feature article discussing futurism and a study that contains in-depth descriptions of the Delphi and TIA methods; listings of the rationales and thought processes, the plausible future developments that could influence the values of these four economic variables and the resulting “fan of possibilities” for the values of these variables

Description: The editor of the newsletter provides a running list of articles included in the issue highlighting such topics as the applicability genetic algorithms, the power of group dynamics, judgmental forecasting, improvement in mortality and complexity science.

Description: The author discusses the various components that may have an effect on the future of mortality such as the extinction of numerous species of flora and fauna the growth of agribusiness genetically modified foods, better public health institutions and programs, etc.

Description: In 2007, members of the Forecasting & Futurism Section were joined by members of the Technology Section and the Marketing & Distribution Sections to conduct a Delphi study about possible developments in the life insurance industry. It was named it “Blue Ocean Strategies in Technology for Business Acquisition by the Life Insurance Industry.” The goal was to have a panel of experts—actuaries and other financial professionals from across the country—identify and debate possible new approaches to acquiring business by life insurers. Panelists were asked to answer questions about possible “Blue Ocean Strategies.” This article highlights the ideas that resulted from those discussions as well as survey results on the same subject.

Description: An application of GLM trees to mortality modeling using the Individual Life Experience Committee 2009-2015 dataset. GLM trees are a hybrid of GLMs and decision trees which are analogous to the way actuaries have analyzed data. The major benefits include speeding up actuarial analytic workflows, improving data understanding, and improving data visualization.

Description: Read the August 2020 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: The Possible Role of Convolutional Neural Networks in Mortality Risk Protection

Description: Overview of the seven trends affecting the Actuarial profession .